In 2020, China made moves to increase tensions in the East Sea such as sinking Vietnamese fishermen’s fishing boats and several times deploying the Haiyang Dizhi 8 geological survey ship under the escort of intrusive coast guard vessels.

Sharing with VnExpress, Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at Australia’s University of New South Wales, predicted that tensions will continue to increase in the East Sea in 2021 because China will continue to promote unreasonable sovereignty claims.

Chinese coast guard ship in the East Sea in April 2017.

He said that China will also intensify the `war of notes` related to the East Sea.

`Chinese fishermen will continue to encroach on the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the Philippines and Indonesia. Indonesia can expel these illegal fishermen or arrest them. So in 2021, we will see

`It’s clear that China has no intention of changing its policy and strategy in the East Sea,` commented Vice Admiral Yoji Koda, former commander of the Self-Defense Fleet of the Japanese Self-Defense Force.

He said that countries in the region as well as related countries such as Japan, the US and Europe should continue to oppose China strongly and clearly in 2021. `The united opposition of countries will certainly put a brake on China.`

He pointed to the case of Scarborough Shoal as a successful example of this type of international effort.

According to Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the US, the international community will continue to condemn Beijing’s moves, not only in matters of

Vice Admiral Yoji emphasized the importance of the US presence in the region.

In this scenario, mainland China could invade the Dongsha Islands controlled by Taiwan to test Biden’s determination to defend Taiwan.

Yoji believes that if the US does not react, or reacts very weakly or slowly, China will use all its strength to deal with Taiwan, and then try to occupy islands controlled by other countries in the East Sea and the South China Sea.

`In short, if China perceives that the US will take a weak stance, Beijing will trigger a series of drastic military activities and create a ‘Domino effect’, with the effort to control Dong Sa being the opening act.

`I think the likelihood of this scenario happening is very low, but it is important for us to cooperate closely with the US and prevent China from thinking that the US does not want to get involved in issues related to China.`

Professor Thayer assesses that the Biden administration will not show a `soft` stance as Beijing expects, but will likely continue to criticize and condemn China’s intimidation and bullying behavior in the East Sea.

Poling also had a similar opinion.

`I hope that when serving as vice president under Obama, Biden learned valuable and important lessons about China’s tricky East Sea strategy in 2009-2017,` Yoji said.

The Trump administration has increased freedom of navigation operations to challenge China’s claims.

In July 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement flatly rejecting China’s claims in the East Sea.

A notable move is that the US last month announced the three-service strategy `Occupy at Sea`, in which the Navy, Marine Corps and US Coast Guard jointly committed to building `total naval power`.

`The new strategy will most likely lead to confrontations at sea between US forces and the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia,` Thayer predicted.

The new strategy document defines the US goal as `protecting freedom of the seas, deterring aggression and winning wars`, pointing out that `the behavior and pace of US military development

Thayer commented that this language shows that `the US will deal with China in the East Sea and elsewhere more fiercely than before`.

Polling also warned about the risk of US-China clashes in the East Sea.